Triple-I Blog | Jobs Are Going Well, Implementing Steps to Increase Income

And Dr. Michel Léonard, Chief Economist and Data Scientist, Triple-I

U.S. employment remained stronger than expected on fiscal expansion, adding 253,000 jobs in April, and reducing the unemployment rate to 3.4 percent in April compared to 3.5 percent in March.

Job growth has improved over the past 26 months, with the US economy now replacing many of the jobs lost at the start of the pandemic. Work for a Insurance Carriers and Related Services the small sector continues to outpace most US jobs. The unemployment rate in the insurance industry was 1.6 percent in April, up from 1.5 percent in March.

Labor confidence and the current low unemployment rate are adding to the pressure of inflationary pressure on the Fed to continue raising rates and increasing inflation. Based on the Triple-I model, the spread between actual and pre-COVID activities, which has been decreasing since the end of the pandemic, should stabilize for now.

Based on this and our discussions with policymakers, our view is that it is unlikely that April’s stronger-than-expected activity will lead the Fed to sharply accelerate the pace of current money; it may, however, extend the duration of the current tightening.

US employment has been slowly returning to pre-COVID growth. This shows confidence, due to the strength of the currency. Expect the Fed to continue with “Slow and steady wins the race,” even as calls for “Financial shock and panic” grow stronger.

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